The Rogers Curve: A Model for the Diffusion of Innovation
The Rogers Curve was first introduced in 1962 by Everett M. Rogers in his book “Diffusion of Innovations”. Rogers developed this model to explain how, why and how quickly new ideas and technologies spread across cultures. At the basis of Rogers' study (we also talked about it in relation to Page's Standing Ovation Model ) there is a famous bell-shaped curve that describes how and on the basis of which categories of adopters any innovation spreads: be it a new mass product, a fashion, a new mentality.
Rogers identified in his book five categories of people (adopters) , based on their propensity to adopt new technologies and ideas:
Innovators : They are the first to adopt an innovation and represent about 2.5% of the population. They are willing to take risks, have access to financial resources and are able to adapt quickly to new situations.
Early adopters : they represent about 13.5% of the population and are the second to experience an innovation. They are opinion leaders and have a positive attitude towards change.
Early majority : They make up about 34% of the population and adopt an innovation slightly earlier than average. They are more cautious than innovators and early adopters, but rely on the opinions of others to make informed decisions.
Late majority : They also represent 34% of the population and adopt an innovation after seeing that most people have already adopted it. They are skeptical and require concrete evidence of the innovation's value before adopting it.
Latecomers : They constitute about 16% of the population and are the last to adopt an innovation. They are traditionalists, have few financial resources and are wary of innovations.
Rogers' basic theory is that any innovation propagates over time by involving these categories sequentially. Therefore, it will never be possible to achieve mass adoption of an innovation if those who are most likely to try the new things are not involved in a significant way first.
The Rogers curve is therefore a useful tool for understanding the process of diffusion of an innovation and for identifying the most effective marketing strategies to reach different categories of adopters. To be successful, companies must develop products and services that meet the needs and preferences of each category of adopters and effectively communicate the value of their product to these market segments.
The Chasm Concept: A Critical Obstacle in Adopting Innovations
It was only in 1991, many years after Rogers's text was first published, that Geoffrey Moore introduced the concept of chasm in his book “Crossing the Chasm”. The basis of Moore's model is the key concept according to which there is a critical gap, or chasm, between the early adopters and the early majority in the process of diffusion of innovation. The chasm is therefore a crucial point in the process of diffusion of innovation because it represents the transition between the initial market, composed mainly of innovators and early adopters, and the mass market, formed by the early majority and subsequent segments. If an innovation fails to overcome the chasm, its potential for diffusion and growth in the mass market will be limited.
DO YOU HAVE A NEW IDEA BUT NOT SURE IT WILL STAND THE MARKET TEST? WE WILL CARRY OUT MARKET RESEARCH FOR YOU TO VERIFY THE FEASIBILITY OF A PROJECT
